Many amphibian species are highly susceptible to changes in precipitation timing and volume because of their reliance on intermittently flooded surface water pools, which are primarily filled through snowmelt and precipitation runoff. ​With increasing evapotranspiration (i.e. transfer of water from land to the atmosphere) due to climate change, the timing and availability of water in key amphibian reproductive habitats will likely be altered. This project will assess the future risk to amphibian populations in the Midwest, identifying present and future richness hotspots and those wetland species and populations most at risk of habitat loss due to climate change. 

The research team will model landscape level changes in wetland habitat suitability and the effect of changes on amphibian species presence and richness. Satellite imagery-derived wetland historical surface water estimates to validate surface water model estimates from the Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) will be used to estimate past and future wetland flooding and timeframes for wetland dry out. The surface water hydrology output from PHyLiSS will be used to predict current and future breeding frog species presence and richness using long-term frog call data from across the upper Midwest.

This work will produce a spatial interface of probable wetland change and corresponding amphibian distributions with current and future richness hotspots identified. The team will present findings to the Midwest Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies and a remote workshop will be held for state and tribal non-game wildlife biologists for informing 2025 State Wildlife Action Plan (SWAP) revisions and possible future Recovering America's Wildlife Act projects.